Despite finishing in P4 and P5, Ferrari had the strongest average race pace over the Sprint’s 19 laps with Sainz averaging a lap time of 1:25.224. Leclerc was just over a tenth off his teammate’s average benchmark, but he spoke to the difficulty of overtaking at the Lusail International Circuit given its one DRS zone and lack of real hard braking zones. He had just one chance at passing Hamilton, and took it, but felt his ability to progress further than P5 was hampered by his qualifying position – a factor likely to be critical in today’s race too, mitigated slightly by strategy.

McLaren had the best average race pace of the teams, with Piastri just over a hundredth slower on average compared to Sainz. Despite having the clean air out front, Norris’ pace was slowed by his need to keep Piastri in his DRS for the majority of the lap as he defended against Russell behind. An attacking Russell’s pace was stronger than that of both McLarens however, but missing the overtake opportunity at the start meant he couldn’t make inroads over the rest of the race.

This weekend sees the key battle for P6 in the Constructors’ continue between Haas, Alpine and Visa Cash App RB, and based on the Sprint Haas have the upper hand over a longer stint. In fact, Max Verstappen’s pace in his RB20 was sandwiched between both Haases, a sign perhaps of how strong they looked, or how limited Verstappen was.

Max Verstappen lost his pole position to a one-place grid penalty for driving unnecessarily slowly on a prep-lap in qualifying, and on paper his race pace doesn’t look promising. But this has to be caveated with the fact that changes have been made between the Sprint and Qualifying/Grand Prix which indicate better balance and confidence for Verstappen, especially in sector 2, which was his weakness versus the Haas in the Sprint. This all points to his pace in today’s Grand Prix being stronger than the Sprint, but only time will tell.

Further down the order, Kick Sauber are having a more promising weekend as they face their second-to-last opportunity to avoid finishing the year with no points. This not only held out in their longer stint race pace, with Bottas ranking around the middle of the pack, but also in qualifying, meaning Bottas will start the Grand Prix from 13th and Zhou from 12th.

Their team representative, Alessandro Alunni Bravi, said the Sprint race was “crucial in gathering valuable data to understand the tyre graining resistance, allowing us to have a clear strategy for every tyre option available for the main race tomorrow.”

The Sprint race represents an important data gathering opportunity for Pirelli themselves too, who saw “very limited graining, signs of wear and graining but not to any worrying degree” over the 19 laps, according to their motorsport director, Mario Isola. Based on this, Pirelli predict a one-stop strategy to be the strongest over the Grand Prix, as although some teams did reach the tyre wear limit, it did not seem to affect performance significantly. 

All of Pirelli’s predictions involve starting on the medium tyre, moving to a hard if on a one stop, or medium-hard-hard/medium-hard-medium if a two stop is going to be used. Though Zhou ran the soft C3 compound over the Sprint, this required high levels of management to be used over a longer stint so will likely be avoided by the teams come today’s race.

Data on the hard tyre is limited, especially over a longer stint, but Isola said that “if they can do 22-23 laps on the medium, then they can probably go from there to the end of the race on a single set of hard tyres.”

All drivers have two sets of hards available for the grand prix, all new except for the Kick Sauber cars who each have one used, one new. Most also have at least two sets of mediums available, with varying degrees of new/used over the field. 

The weather will be a key factor affecting tyres, pace and strategy – it’s much cooler this year versus last, meaning graining and sliding is more limited. But wind will also need to be considered, as it can impact the balance of the cars at each corner and drag sand onto the track: “It’s an important element, because we know it’s going to unbalance the car, and here, the balance is quite tricky,” said Isola. “To have the front and rear axle in the same sweet spot is not easy – in fact it’s probably the challenge of the weekend.”