One stop all the way? Strategic options for the Japanese Grand Prix
The strategic options for the Japanese Grand Prix are clear, but could the one-stop strategy have the opposite effect on racing compared to last year?
The 2025 Japanese Grand Prix was infamously processional for a number of reasons, perhaps the principle of which was the lack of lap time fall off as tyre life extended, owing to low degradation. It allowed the majority of the front runners at least to take the hard tyre for over 30 laps while maintaining pace. Fourteen drivers also set their fastest laps of the race in the last five laps, illustrating their ability to keep pushing even on tyres beyond their optimal lifespans.
That was also a result of the newly laid, smoother surface in sector one which this year has been extended into the second and third sectors and so far has helped keep tyre degradation under control. Where there has been graining, it’s not had a significant impact.
With that in mind, the optimal strategy this year remains that one-stop, but if the ability to push on the C1 is as high as it was last year even to the closing stages, with the smaller, more nimble cars but also power discrepancies car-to-car, that could give rise to more action and changes of positions than it did before.
One-stop options
Pirelli predict that the fastest strategies are one-stops but they could make use of all three compounds - with starting stints either on the medium, which is perhaps the more robust, conservative option, or the soft, offering a grip advantage off the line but a shorter, less flexible opening stint.
In the latter scenario, the pit window would open between laps 13 and 19, two laps sooner than those who pick the medium to start - which Pirelli feel will be the majority. But starting on the medium and running longer does keep the option of reacting to a neutralisation for the sole pitstop open.
Unlike last year, Pirelli don’t anticipate that drivers will choose to start on the hard tyre, even if they are out of position, as it sits at the very hardest end of their range and the grip it offers off the line is much poorer than the medium/soft.
There is a third one-stop option, but according to Pirelli’s simulations, it runs around ten seconds slower than the options involving the hard, given the consistency of pace that’s been observed on the C1 so far this weekend as it interacts with the grippier, yet smooth new surface. It involves using the soft and the medium, which offers the chance to use the grip advantage offered by the C3 to start but does come with the limitation of needing to manage the medium carefully to the end after boxing from lap 18 to 24. That could come at the expense of performance.
A two-stop option?
There is an opportunity for the undercut to be effective in Suzuka under a few conditions, including a clean out-lap into clean air and energy being managed efficiently over that. Pirelli see that that could be enacted by drivers running outside the points or out of position looking to bring forward their switch from the soft, if they’ve started on it, to move onto the hard sooner but then box again for a final set of C3s to carve through the traffic they got out of later on.
That’s a riskier option, but could come into play if a safety car period occurs as it has done at 50% of the last six races, or even a VSC which has been seen at 33% of the last six races.
What tyres do the drivers have left?
A few drivers are in a position to make use of that two-stop strategy with double new soft stints, should the opportunity arise - Bearman, Perez, and Verstappen. Given that the majority of drivers have a remaining allocation made up of one set of hards and between one and two new medium sets, plus a range of used softs, we’re most likely to see the medium-hard one-stop play out over the field.
But those who have an extra set of new mediums, including the Mercedes, Ferraris, Aston Martins, Cadillacs, and Alex Albon have more options open to them to box a second time, if needed, under neutralisations. The McLaren pair are in a similar situation, yet with an extra hard set over the field.
Will the weather play a role?
In short no, it’s expected to be warm, cloudy yet dry with a high of 22°C. Wind gusts are expected of up to 26km/h, and so far the wind has been impacting the balance of a number of cars this weekend. The cloud cover could work to keep degradation lower even in moderate temperatures.
