Can McLaren challenge Mercedes over the Sprint? FP1 Race Pace Analysis
Ferrari presented the closest challenge to Mercedes last time out, but in Shanghai it seems McLaren have joined them. So can that persist into the Sprint?
A week on from Mercedes’ dominance being most closely challenged by Ferrari, in Shanghai it seems McLaren have joined that group, based on Sprint Qualifying at least. Norris was able to out-qualify Hamilton by 0.02s, with Piastri out-qualifying Leclerc by a more significant margin of 0.304s.
It does leave them all from within 0.332 and 0.719s of Antonelli as the second placed Mercedes, with a further almost three tenths to Russell from there. The evidence from the, albeit very limited, race pace simulations done in FP1 suggests the gap could remain similar over the Sprint…
As we’ve come to expect from Mercedes, they put a more significant emphasis on longer running than any other team, with Antonelli and Russell completing eight and nine lap runs respectively. Every driver ran the medium tyre, giving us a solid basis for comparison, but even so Mercedes’ average pace leaves them 0.672s clear of McLaren’s.
The tricky part of knowing where Ferrari sit in that picture in being able to progress forward to McLaren or further forward to Mercedes, is that neither Leclerc nor Hamilton completed meaningful race simulation laps.
The Ferrari powered car that did though, Bearman in his Haas, showed impressive pace. The five laps he logged put him clear of Norris’ average pace, but still over 1.2 seconds off that of Antonelli as the quickest. With Ocon’s pace also on the higher ranking side, their combined average puts Haas as the third quickest team.
And aside from Ferrari lacking long run data, it’s Red Bull’s poor showing that has opened up room in the ranking for new teams to push into the top four (at least temporarily and in these specific circumstances).
Verstappen called their Friday running a “disaster” and his longer run pace was on par with Bottas’ in the Cadillac, as a demonstration of how far off it was from his, and the team’s, expectation of their place in the field. Hadjar’s pace leaves him another around a second back from his own teammate, putting Red Bull as a team almost 0.8s slower than their sister-team in Racing Bulls, but also as second slowest overall with very inconsistent times on top of that.
That’s unlikely to be a true representation of where they will be come the Sprint itself or the grand prix on Sunday given the break in parc ferme and the opportunity that presents for a shift in setup, but it is undoubtedly a representation of the way the “risks” they took for setup today impacted their performance.
In the midfield pack, the field spread is much less than it is even within the front runners.
Alpine, Williams, Audi and Racing Bulls’ averages are split here by around 0.8s and given that these drivers have all, generally, qualified near each other for the Sprint we could be set for some genuine fighting for position between them over it. However that should be caveated by the fact that some teams, Audi particularly, have very limited long run laps to go off, and others, such as Williams or Racing Bulls, only have data from a single driver.
Even so, the pace shown over a single lap in sprint qualifying and seemingly also over a longer run in FP1 by Gasly was enough to leave him top of the midfield. Adding Colapinto into the picture does pull Alpine’s average back more, but Gasly’s performance indicates that they found something on from Melbourne where he finished P10 in the Grand Prix.
"I’ve been feeling good in the car, there’s definitely more potential than we’ve seen in Melbourne,” he said, “so I’m confident [about points].”
Aston Martin head into the Sprint as something of an unknown given the lack of longer run data we have from them, and as expected for their second race, Cadillac sit as the clear backmarkers.
The picture from here…
The Sprint is set to provide us with a clearer picture again of the competitive order this weekend, particularly with the grand prix in mind. It will also give the teams greater insight into the tyre behaviour they’ll have had a taste of over these shorter runs, which Pirelli said is following the graining that’s been typical for Shanghai in recent years.
That’s been more pronounced over the front axle, as expected, and even more so on the front left than right, also as anticipated, although Pirelli have stated that the impact of that graining on overall wear “remains limited”.
Wouldn't be surprised if Ferrari's race pace holds up again, and it's nice to see the midfield teams closing in.