After each driver in the field set several laps on Pirelli’s medium and hard compounds, focus shifted in the closing stages of the hour to soft tyre running. Charles Leclerc topped the time sheets on this C3 tyre with a lap time of 1:21.953, but both McLarens were within 5 tenths of this time from Leclerc, and the other Ferrari of Sainz was just shy of 6 tenths off his teammate’s benchmark.

It was anticipated that McLaren would set the pace in Qatar given the MCL38’s preference for medium speed corners, though Ferrari were not anticipating being the top runners. Speaking on media day about how the SF-24 may suit Qatar’s high speed corners, Carlos Sainz said, “Everywhere we’ve faced sectors with fast corners, we’ve never been among the top four cars. We’ve never been fast.”

Clearly this scepticism has not come to fruition at this, albeit early, point in the weekend. So what does the data from FP1 say about how Ferrari and McLaren compare, and how their opposition in Red Bull for the Constructor’s title also fared?

The speeds around the lap of the Lusail International Circuit vary per sector – sector 1 features the run into turn 1 of course, followed by low-medium speed corners, sector 2 has low speed tighter turns where increased downforce levels prove useful and flows into turn 11 where speed increases, finally sector 3 features the high speed, quick successive corners of T12-14.

Assessing the track dominance map comparing the fastest FP1 laps of the fastest drivers from Ferrari (Leclerc), McLaren (Norris) and Red Bull (Verstappen) shows that though the McLaren has the advantage over areas exiting slower speed corners, the Ferrari dominates the majority of the lower-medium speed corners in sector 2. The RB20 is strongest through the apex of turn 13 in the middle of that high speed run from 12-14, but Ferrari is strongest out of the exit of 14 and into 15.

This relates to the downforce levels being run this weekend by the top three constructors. Ferrari have opted for a medium-high downforce rear wing and overall package aimed at optimising their overall aerodynamic efficiency – maximising downforce through the floor’s ground effect while maintaining relatively strong top speeds.

This choice seems to be giving them the upper hand through the successive lower speed corners around the lap, i.e. in sector 2. This can also be seen on the speed trace telemetry from these same laps – Leclerc and Norris are able to carry more speed out of the medium speed corners compared to Verstappen, while in the slower turns of sector 2 Leclerc has the upper hand, pointing to that downforce advantage. Despite this, Verstappen is faster off the straight and into the braking zone of turn 1.

This persists into the speed trap average for each team’s soft tyre runs in FP1 – Red Bull set the pace, while Ferrari and McLaren are further down the order given their emphasis on maximising downforce.

All of this analysis comes with the usual fuel load, setup, engine mode caveats and is hampered by many unknowns in these areas and others. But it seems Ferrari’s FP1 pace is real, making them a top contender for Pole both in the Sprint and perhaps the Grand Prix, likely to be closely challenged by McLaren.