Pirelli, F1 and the FIA have come together to introduce a limit on the number of laps each tyre set can cover at this event. Every set of tyres supplied to the the teams in advance of the on track action will be able to complete a maximum of 25 laps. The total includes laps done in every session up to the grand prix and laps completed under the virtual or full safety cars too. It will not however include laps to the grid or formation laps, or those completed after the chequered flag has waved in the sprint and grand prix.

What’s the reason for this?

The Lusail International Circuit is one that exerts a similar level of stress on the tyres as Suzuka given that all but one of its corners are classed as high-speed. Yet, unlike Suzuka, this is also under high temperatures and high humidity so the stress accumulates across the energy exerted, thermal factors and tread wear.

But despite that severe level of stress, the circuit is peculiar in that no significant drop in performance is seen as a result. That can create a situation where the teams continue to lengthen their stints even where the wear level has already reached its limit.

Pirelli observed that exact situation during the 100km Sprint here last year, over which some cars had reached 100% wear with just one third of a grand prix fuel load on board. The same phenomenon under an even higher fuel load is what Pirelli believe drove front left punctures for both Carlos Sainz and Lewis Hamilton in last year’s grand prix.

The front left is already the tyre that’s subjected to the greatest load around the Lusail International Circuit, and where that high wear was combined with even the smallest piece of debris, Pirelli’s Mario Isola said it was “no coincidence” that both punctures were on that front left.

Even beyond those who’d suffered tyre failures, Pirelli’s post-race analyses last year identified that several tyres, again particularly at the left front, had reached the maximum wear level over the grand prix. Quite simply, this new limit is aimed at preventing that from happening again.

Has this happened before?

It’s important to differentiate that extreme wear from what was seen here in 2023, where the grand prix was run with a mandated stint length for a different reason.

Following Friday’s free practice sessions, Pirelli observed micro lacerations in the sidewall, between the topping compound and the carcass cords, of tyres that had done 20+ laps. It was believed this was due to the aggressive, pyramid-style kerbs that were specifically found at turns 12 and 13.

The FIA made track limits revisions at those corners in an effort to prevent further issues, with an extra free practice session also being added to the weekend to allow the drivers to get to grips with the changes. But even so, prior to the grand prix, the FIA imposed an 18-lap maximum on the number of laps each tyre set could complete as those track changes hadn’t generated a significant enough reduction in the chance of further micro tears occurring.

That stint limit pushed every driver into running a three-stop race, mostly involving two medium stints to open followed by a hard and medium to close.

What implications might this new limit have?

Pushing flat out

Although the limit is intended to stop teams pushing their stint lengths beyond the wear limit of the tyres, the consequence is that the drivers will push flat out to the limit they’ve been given.

There’ll likely be very little pace or degradation management, particularly as the limit of 25 laps is well within the stint lengths we’ve seen drivers run on the hardest compounds when they’ve been in play at other grands prix earlier this year.

At Bahrain for example, a circuit known for its punishing surface and high temperatures, the longest stint done on the soft was 25 laps, while the medium ran up to 31 laps on Verstappen’s Red Bull and the hard completed a maximum of 30 laps in the hands of Ocon.

We’ve also seen that that was the pattern when the last mandatory stint length was introduced in Qatar two years ago. Although that was shorter, drivers pushing flat out over the 18 laps on each set in the heat and humidity left a number unwell during and after the grand prix and requiring medical attention – George Russell said he had “never experienced anything like that before.”

Logan Sargeant retired mid-way through the race as he could not cope in the conditions any further, while his teammate Alex Albon was treated for acute heat exposure at the medical centre and Lance Stroll also received treatment for dehydration.

In response, the FIA scheduled the grand prix for six weeks later in the season for 2024, a place it holds on the calendar again this year. The slightly reduced temperatures, plus the new-for-this-year option for the race director to declare a heat hazard if necessary and the longer mandatory stints should work to mean we don’t see a repeat of that again.

Whole weekend strategy

The Sprint format already requires some different management of tyre sets from the teams compared to a typical grand prix weekend, but this limit could give rise to even more variation in how its done team-to-team – which could be the source of strategic variation come Sunday.

As a reminder, heading into a Sprint weekend each driver is allocated 12 tyre sets of dry weather tyres made up of two hard sets, four medium and six soft. The mandatory medium-medium-soft tyres required for progression through SQ1-SQ2-SQ3 is something teams have to consider in their usage of those sets over a sprint weekend, but in Qatar this could be complicated further by the accumulation of laps and how that will contribute to how far a single set can run come the grand prix.

The simplest way of avoiding such complications would be to only run brand new sets during the grand prix, but that’s unlikely to be feasible. Instead, we’re more likely to see a situation where the strategic variation over this grand prix arises from how the teams have managed their drivers’ allocations over the weekend to that point – more laps already on a set from practice, Sprint Qualifying, or the Sprint itself could result in more than the two expected stops.

To ensure they’re not at a strategic disadvantage over the first phase of the race versus their competitors, expect the teams to ensure they have a set of brand new tyres remaining for the first stint (likely a medium based on past strategies here). That will given them the option of running to the full 25-lap limit to start, keeping different strategic possibilities from there as open as possible, so they aren’t forced into boxing earlier than they’d like due to these limits.

In other words, the tyre allocation management even from the very first session on Friday could be informative as to how a team is planning on approaching their grand prix.