Championship chances from the front row

Lando Norris will start from pole position after an impressive lap in what can only be described as treacherous conditions as wet weather combined with Vegas’ already glassy surface. But alongside him on the front row will be Max Verstappen, the only non-McLaren driver still in contention for the driver’s title at this point, but that could be about to change…

If Norris finishes 9 or more points ahead of Verstappen by the chequered flag, it will end the four-time champion’s chances of taking his fifth this year. Equally for Norris, a win or even podium here is a chance of placing one hand on the championship trophy given that his other, and closest, rival, Oscar Piastri, will start back in P5.

It puts pressure on that start from the front row for both drivers for different reasons, and given that it’s the second shortest run from pole to the turn 1 braking zone of the season (112 metres), could we see either of them take inspiration from how Verstappen and Red Bull handled a pole start at the shortest?

In Baku (89 metres), Verstappen began on the hard tyre versus the mediums of those around him and it allowed him to extend well into the race before taking just his only pitstop. Pirelli have predicted a one-stop from the mediums>hards as the quickest choice for this race provided graining can be worked through or kept at bay, but switching those compounds could offer a riskier, yet perhaps viable, alternative.

Sainz continues taking Williams to the front

For the second time this season, Carlos Sainz will start a grand prix from the top three for Williams as he found the grip a number of drivers couldn’t in qualifying.

Even before the on track running began, James Vowles had expressed that Las Vegas could be their “strongest venue” to the end of the season as the layout here perfectly suits their car’s inherent strength in a straight line.

Coupled with adaption from the team in the face of a tougher FP3 in mixed conditions to ensure they could fit the intermediate and extreme wet tyres and still find the strength of pace they’d shown on the slicks, it left Sainz just shy of four tenths off pole and four hundredths off the front row.

“We are becoming stronger every race, every lap that we do together,” he said, and he’s now looking to convert his second top three start for a grand prix into a second grand prix podium this year.

Fast cars out of position

The chaos of qualifying and the sheer number of yellow flags left a number of drivers out of position compared to perhaps the real pace of their cars, and so with work to do over the 50 laps later.

Lewis Hamilton in P20 in Ferrari’s first time qualifying last for a grand prix on pure pace since 2009, Kimi Antonelli in P17, Alex Albon in P16, and Yuki Tsunoda in P19 all left time on the board as a result of errors or unfortunate circumstances.

But that sets us up to look out for recovery drives from each of these drivers as their underlying pace could come back to the fore in dry racing conditions, leaving them to power back through the field and perhaps into the points!

Gasly looking for more morale boosting points

Speaking of points and a driver who will “give it [his] all” to stay in them after a ninth Q3 session of the season is Pierre Gasly.

He had already outdone his Q3 record of 2024, but with this P10 result he’s become now one of just four non-top four team drivers to have 9 or more Q3 appearances on the board this season.

But unlike Hadjar, or Alonso, or Sainz who are his company in that group, Gasly has done so while his team sits dead last in the constructors’ with just 22 points on the board.

It’s a performance pattern worth noting, particularly because this top-10 start comes just two weeks after his last in Sao Paulo. Las Vegas has historically been a venue where Gasly has thrived in the past, converting a P3 start to a P5 finish here last year. If he can remain in the points this year it may not have a transformational effect on Alpine’s championship, but it would boost the morale of a team who’ve worked extremely hard over what’s been their toughest season yet.

Racing Bulls look to stay ahead in the battle for P6

The team currently at the top of the incredibly tight battle for 6th in the constructors’ was also the only one in that battle, and of the whole field except McLaren, to get both cars into Q3.

Racing Bulls finished qualifying with Liam Lawson in P6 and Isack Hadjar in P8 as both drivers were able to improve lap on lap despite the low level of grip throughout. It marks their second consecutive double-Q3 appearance, but even so, both drivers were left wanting more with Lawson saying “we had more speed in the car” and Hadjar echoing that as a yellow flag impacted his final run.

Focus now has to switch to the race however and converting these positions would go a long way to keeping the Red Bull sister team at the top of that all important P6 battle, and would also be their fourth double-Q3 to double points conversion of the year – making Red Bull’s upcoming seat decision for 2026 all the more difficult!