Pirelli’s optimal choice

Pirelli have stayed firm in their belief that the one-stop is the only true option for this Italian Grand Prix. It was the initial thought coming in based on simulations and the data from all three free practice hours has only affirmed that. The degradation levels look to be relatively low overall, but also not that different between the compounds and especially between the mediums and hards.

As a result, Pirelli’s optimal strategy predicts most drivers running a medium-hard one-stop with a pit window between lap 22-28. This strategy could also be reversed of course, with the hard being run first and the medium later, which is more likely to be an option for faster cars starting out of position.

What’s the alternative?

There are some more aggressive alternative options however, and this is where Red Bull could decide to be bold with strategy to retain Verstappen’s top spot.

In light of the lower degradation, Pirelli say that the soft could find itself playing an important role especially if a driver can manage their wear to hold out for a neutralisation towards the race end. Interestingly, also as a result of the minimal difference between the C4 and C3, this could involve running the opening stint on the medium or hard tyres with equal pit windows of lap 32-38.

Where Red Bull could throw a curveball for Verstappen is by reversing one of these strategies to start strong on the soft with the grip advantage that could bring off the line. Pirelli estimate the grip delta between the medium and soft compounds to be fairly large, with the soft predicted to get a driver to 150kph in 1.88m less than the medium.

Should the McLarens behind go for the conventional medium at the start, although this would benefit them later on in the stint, that’s where the limited DRS effect in Monza and Verstappen’s lower downforce and more straight-line speed focused setup could pay dividends.

The allocations

How the allocations have been managed by the teams to this point is fully in line with Pirelli’s optimal choice for today’s grand prix. All but four cars have one new medium and one new hard set remaining: Verstappen has held onto an extra new hard, Hadjar has one extra new medium, and the two Aston Martins only have one used medium set remaining. From there, and particularly for the cars that couldn’t advance to Q3, there’s variation in the number of softs the drivers have available to them with Lawson, who’s set to start from P20, having the most new sets with three.

Given that Hadjar is set to start from the pit lane after taking a new power unit overnight, being the only car to have two new sets of mediums could be beneficial in the event of a safety car. But given the very minimal difference between the hard and medium this weekend, Verstappen could be in a similar position given that he’s the only front runner to have held onto two new hard sets.

What happened last year?

Last year’s Italian Grand Prix was dominated by high graining and degradation as a result of high track temperatures and the new track surface that had been laid prior to the weekend. The medium and hard compounds therefore dominated the teams’ strategies, with the soft only running 1% of race laps.

But unlike Pirelli’s predictions for this year, and the typical strategic pattern at Monza, the level of tyre wear pushed most drivers into running the two-stop. As the race advanced though, this graining effect lessened which allowed Leclerc’s gamble on the one-stop to pay off and push him up into the lead and ultimately the win over the two McLarens who ran the two-stop.

Pirelli’s Mario Isola noted following last year’s race that the “vital factor” was the drivers’ feeling but also their ability to manage the tyres – something that could also prove vital today, should a driver wish to run the soft.

Can the weather play a role?

While the sun will be shining and the temperatures will be warm, it’s predicted to be cooler than last year’s grand prix. An anticipated ambient temperature of 27°C with blue skies and sunshine mean the weather is unlikely to hugely influence the strategy, leaving all options on the table!