This weekend will be the 40th edition of the Hungarian Grand Prix as the first event at the Hungaroring took place in 1986, following its construction beginning just nine months earlier. It was F1’s first grand prix behind the Iron Curtain following the recommendation of Budapest as a host city to Bernie Ecclestone by a friend. Although they intially considered reviving the old Népliget Park circuit in Budapest itself that had played host to grand prix racing 50 years earlier, they settled for new construction just outside the city.

And this year there’s been even more construction – a brand new main pit building, a new covered grandstand opposite this, and a resurfaced start-finish straight all mean the Hungaroring looks very different this year versus last.

But its status as a high-downforce, tight, twisty, bumpy circuit that earned it the reputation of being ‘Monaco without the walls’ hasn’t changed. It has 14 turns, six to the left, eight to the right and mostly all slow-medium speed. Similarly to Monaco, its these features that make overtaking tough and track position king.

The typical opportunities to make up places come out of the start-finish straight’s DRS zone and into turn 1. But the drivers then have to be cautious of the run to turn 2 that is also a smaller DRS zone as the single detection point that covers both of these zones before the final corner can mean the driver now ahead following an overtake has their rear wing open, making a comeback much trickier.

Unlike sector 1 with its just three corners, sector 2 is where we see kerb riding and commitment become critical. The drivers have to find a rhythm through the changes of direction here that are usually taken in single-file on race day. But its this that means that by sector 3 the tyres are incredibly warm, making the final two corners of the lap as tighter, longer hairpins a real challenge to maintain grip and traction throughout.

With such an even profile of corners over the lap, there’s much less compromise to be found here than Spa last time out so expect the teams to bolt on their bigger, Monaco-spec rear wings.

The Compounds

This year Pirelli have arrived in Budapest with same trio of slick compounds as last year: the C3 as the hard, C4 as the medium and C5 as the soft. With this is no longer the softest possible selection given the addition of the C6 to the range for this season, it is on the more stable side of the softer end. We’ve seen the C6 be a more volatile, unpredictable, single-lap soft tyre whereas the C5 has offered more stability, yet similar high grip benefits.

The Hungaroring exerts high energy on the tyres and with the lap being just 4.381km long, this energy increases cumulatively as the laps tick down. This, plus the typically high temperatures seen over the Hungarian weekend with the Hungaroring’s dark track surface, mean thermal degradation is likely to play a significant role in how the teams choose and manage their selections come race day.

That said, track evolution will be high as the circuit is typically dusty on a Friday morning. Before this is cleaned up the drivers can experience graining over the early free practice sessions, which decreases as the rubber is laid down. The new surface on the start-finish straight could also exacerbate this effect this year.

What happened last year?

Last year’s Hungarian Grand Prix was one where the lead changed seven times over its 70 laps. Ultimately, Oscar Piastri was the one to cross the line first to claim his maiden grand prix victory and become the latest driver to take his first F1 win there, alongside Ocon in 2021, Button in 2006 and Alonso in 2003.

Despite this, much of the discussion post-race revolved around McLaren’s team orders negotiations over the radio in the last stint after the team’s decision to box Norris first resulted in Piastri’s lead going his way instead.

After some persuasion, Norris moved aside to allow Piastri to reclaim his lead and take the win, and ended the race in P2 himself. Lewis Hamilton was third after having started from pole for the ninth time at the Hungaroring.

All three of these front runners ran the more conventional two stop strategy, starting with a medium then moving to a hard, but with slight variation on the compound used for the final stint – as was also seen through the rest of the top six. The McLarens, Leclerc, Verstappen and Sainz all ran a medium for their final laps while Hamilton was the anomaly in the group and opted for a hard tyre to the end.

The hard (C3) tyre was the most commonly used over the grand prix – giving a balance of competitiveness and longevity that meant it was taken to a maximum of 41 laps by both VCARB drivers: Ricciardo and Tsunoda. In fact, some drivers completed very short stints on the medium or soft at the race start to get onto the hard tyre as soon as possible.

Tsunoda was the only driver in the field to run the one stop strategy after taking his medium tyre for 29 laps in the opening phase before moving to the hard and running that to the end. It’s a strategy we could see this year if the tyres can be proven to last and if degradation is low enough to allow a driver on older tyres to defend their position from a rival on newer tyres behind. In that case, it could offer a key opportunity for a driver to retain their valuable track position.

In what is likely to be a pattern also seen this year, the soft (C5) was largely a qualifying compound, although it did run 14 laps on Stroll’s Aston Martin and formed the opening part of a two-stop strategy that would see him finish in P10 and in the points. If teams want to run it this year, expect the stints to be short and early/late.

Characteristic considerations

As a high downforce circuit, on par with Monaco in terms of setup, the teams will likely be running their highest downforce specification rear wings. This setup is demanded by sector two’s slower changes of direction but also the stability needed to attack the last few corners in sector 3.

Cooling will also be a key consideration for the teams with on track temperatures predicted to soar up to 50°C. Look for open louvres, driver inlets, and larger rear outlets with the drag penalty of these being less impactful than it would usually be given the short main straight and very few high-speed sections.

The weather

Speaking of temperature and weather and we could be in for a mixed few days. Friday is expected to be the warmest, sunniest day of the weekend with air temperatures of around 28°C in both FP1 and FP2.

Saturday may become cloudier as the day progresses, with a 20% chance of rain particularly in the afternoon yet still high temperatures of 27-28°C over both sessions.

Finally, Sunday could be where we see rain become a real factor for the teams. There’s a high chance of rain overnight into race day and this could continue into Sunday morning, with a 30% chance of it affecting the grand prix currently.

Even if no rain falls during the race, it could be a wet start with the crossover likely to come fairly quickly given the predicted 27°C temperature for race start.

The last wet race we saw in Hungary was 2021. Beyond the chaos of the opening few corners that saw several drivers’ races end as Bottas and Stroll went misjudged the braking in the wet, every driver remaining bar Lewis Hamilton opted to box off the formation lap to change from inters to slicks at the restart following a red flag.

This led to the somewhat bizarre image of Hamilton lining up alone on the grid but was also what put Ocon into the lead, which he held to the end to earn his first, and to this date only, F1 win.

The Hungarian Grand Prix begins with Free Practice 1 at 13:30 local time on Friday August 1st. The rest of the timings for the weekend are as follows (all in local time):

• FP1: Friday 1st August, 13:30-14:30
• FP2: Friday 1st August, 17:00-18:00
• FP3: Saturday 2nd August, 12:30-13:30
• Qualifying: Saturday 2nd August, 16:00-17:00
• Hungarian Grand Prix: Sunday 3rd August, 15:00