Pirelli’s optimal choice

Pirelli are anticipating the fastest way to the flag to be the two-stop: the Hungaroring is a circuit that exerts high energy on the tyres and this compounds lap after lap in the grand prix, making it tough to extend a stint especially if the temperatures are warmer.

The most likely way of running this is to start on the medium before moving to two hard stints back to back, each of around 18-24 laps in length. But starting on the medium can also offer flexibility of moving to the one-stop should a driver be able to extend the C4’s life to around lap 25-31.

Pirelli’s Mario Isola feels this could work best for drivers in the midfield if the temperatures are lower than seen to this point of the weekend, which is likely.

What’s the alternative?

While a medium-hard-hard two stop is the most optimal plan according to Pirelli’s simulations, they also haven’t ruled out every compound coming into play at some point.

Where drivers are out of position they may opt to start on the soft, running it for 8-14 laps before moving to a medium or hard, and running another set of hards to the end. This can offer a powerful undercut from the early phase of the race but puts those who choose this strategy at risk of being overtaken by drivers on fresher rubber behind.

Ten of the twenty drivers have at least one set of new soft tyres remaining – namely those who didn’t advance beyond Q2 in qualifying – which makes them the most likely candidates for this alternative two-stop.

But there’s also a mix of how teams have managed their medium vs. hard allocations to this point. The two Saubers are the only cars with two new sets of mediums remaining making them the only cars really able to run a medium-hard-medium race.

Leclerc, Russell, Verstappen, Hamilton, Colapinto, Antonelli and Gasly are the only ones with two brand new hard sets each, with the McLarens making up their two hard sets with a mix of new and used.

Where drivers have just single sets of the mediums and hards, for instance Lawson, Hadjar and the Aston Martins who are all starting inside the top ten, they will either be aiming to make the one-stop work or will be forced into using the soft if the thermal degradation levels are higher.

What happened last year?

Expect this year’s strategies to largely look similar to last year’s – each of the top eight cars ran the two-stop with the top six opting to start on the medium, move to the hard between laps 16 and 23, and move either to a used medium in the McLarens’ cases, or a new medium for all but Hamilton who ran double hard stints to the podium.

At the front, managing the undercut risk became more critical for the first round of stops than it was for the second. Hamilton boxed first on lap 16 which pushed McLaren to box Norris on lap 17 before Piastri came in the following lap. By the second stop, they’d pulled out much more of a gap and though Hamilton boxed first of the three again, McLaren were less reactive and opted to extend their tyre delta over him instead.

Further down, starting on a hard and extending it to lap 28 allowed Sergio Perez to jump up the order as those he’d started around from P16 ran the shorter opening stint on a soft or medium. It was a similar story for George Russell who ran the hard all the way to lap 33 before taking his first stop, moving up from P17 to P8 by the flag.

Bolting on either the soft or medium tyres at the start and running them for a short stint – between 2 and 16 laps – before running double hard stints was a popular choice for those starting outside the top 10.

Though the two-stop dominated, the three-stop was also run albeit fairly unsuccessfully by Sargeant and Ocon who finished P17 and P18, respectively. The one-stop also made an appearance with Tsunoda who extended the opening medium stint to lap 29 before running the hard to the end to finish P9.

Will the weather play a role?

The chances of a wet race are fairly high, with rain having already fallen at the Hungaroring this morning. Although the risk of rain is much lower now there is still around a 40% chance that the start will be wet.

Even if this doesn’t come to fruition, the track conditions will be much cooler, windier and unstable than we’d seen in free practice which Mario Isola says could create some “unpredictable situations”.