Pirelli’s optimal choice

Simulation-wise it seems Pirelli’s attempts at creating strategic variation once again (softer compounds plus a faster speed limit in the pit lane) may have worked, at least in theory. Heading in, they believe that the two-stop strategy has a “slight advantage”, in Mario Isola’s words, in terms of overall race time.

However, the likelihood of teams opting for taking that extra stop is minimal. Pirelli know that, given the importance of track position at this narrow Zandvoort circuit, the teams will try and make just a single pitstop. In that case, opening the race on the medium tyre and switching to a hard from lap 28-34 will be the quickest way to the flag.

What’s the alternative?

Where a team does want to try for the two-stop, Pirelli predict two main strategies.

One makes use of the soft tyre early on, with a stint of just 13-19 laps given that the red-walled tyre is the softer C4 this year. Although we saw Lewis Hamilton use the C3 soft tyre with success in last year’s Dutch GP, race simulations from FP1 and FP2 suggest that the C4 could be less optimal over a race stint. And that will limit how long the teams want to run it for.

That will be balanced by the durability of the C2 as the hard tyre however for a second stint. Pirelli expect that to be run to lap 45-51, before switching to a medium for the third and final stint. Given the versatility of the medium, and the durability of the hard, there will likely be some flexibility in those pitstop lap estimates that the teams can use to account for how well the soft may run.

Alternatively, a two stop may be run as a medium-hard-hard. It’s a slower, but perhaps more stable option that could be open to teams who have two hards remaining – only Aston Martin and McLaren. In the event of a safety car/VSC, having that extra hard set could give Alonso, Stroll, Piastri or Norris the opportunity to move from an inital medium-hard plan to a two-stop using that extra hard for a tyre life offset to those around them.

Speaking of allocations, aside from the Aston Martins and McLarens holding onto an extra set of C2s, there’s not a lot of variation in how the teams have managed them to this point.

The majority enter race day with one set of hards, one medium and a mix of new and used softs. Should these remaining eight teams (excluding AM/MCL) wish to consider the two-stop, it would therefore involve either an opening or closing stint on the softs. Again, in the event of a later safety car having those soft tyres, especially where they’re new, could open up the opportunity for a driver to box and gain a tyre life advantage for the closing stages.

What happened last year?

Last year’s Dutch Grand Prix was dominated by the one-stop, which was also the winning strategy for Lando Norris, and we’re largely expecting this year’s to look very similar.

All of the top six finishers ran the medium-hard one-stop with a range of pit laps from 24-33: slightly earlier than Pirelli are anticipating this year which could make management to reach that predicted window more critical, given the softer compounds.

Only six drivers opted for the two-stop with variations on the soft-medium-hard and medium-hard-hard. Hamilton in particular opened and closed with a soft stint, with a shorter hard stint in the middle phase of the grand prix and used it to move up from P14 on the grid to P8 by the flag.

Ultimately, aside from Hamilton or his teammate Russell who used a medium-hard-soft strategy to finish P7, the two-stop was not the optimal strategy to run last year.

Pirelli concluded that the lack of use of the soft last year was down to the teams’ lack of information over its performance heading in, making the medium a safer option. This year, five teams ran soft stints on Friday to gauge the C4’s performance over a longer-run and based on FP2’s runs, it ranks slowest for average lap time. It means they have the information this year, and it’s that that actually may make them cautious of using the soft.

Can the weather play a role?

As always in Zandvoort, the forecast can be inaccurate given its proximity to the sea. It means rain can be predicted and never arrive, as has been the story so far this weekend, or it means rain can come in seemingly from nowhere. For race day, there is rain forecast but it’s most likely to hit in the morning which will reset the track grip-wise and evolution-wise once again. There’s also a 40% chance of rain during the grand prix, which could be heavy if it does hit!

Pirelli’s 500th Grand Prix

Today’s grand prix also marks Pirelli’s 500th of being involved in Formula 1 and to celebrate, there are special 500GP logos on the tyres’ sidewalls with the teams also running the logo on their cars.