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“We will not be the quickest”: Verstappen assesses Red Bull’s chances in China

Evolution of pace as the weekend progressed played a role in how Max Verstappen and Red Bull claimed P2 in Melbourne. But tyre usage was their Achilles heel over every session, so how does Verstappen rate his chances versus McLaren in China?

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Red Bull’s opening weekend of 2025 got off to a more difficult start, with the three practice sessions proving critical in allowing the team to refine their setup and car ahead of qualifying. Verstappen bemoaned the RB21’s lack of grip in sectors one and three of the Albert Park Circuit after free practice, saying “the grip wasn’t great and we were struggling on all four tyres.” Even so, he said there were “no major balance issues” with the car, giving them a stable foundation upon which they were able to build into qualifying.

This was evident in comparisons of Verstappen and Lando Norris’ final Q3 laps last time out. Telemetry indicated that Verstappen and Norris had been even on lap time up to sector three, with advantages being exchanged either way up to that point that were reflective of the cars’ individual strengths and weaknesses.

Comparison of telemetry from Max Verstappen and Lando Norris' Q3 laps at the 2025 Australian Grand Prix.

But Norris’ margin over Verstappen appeared almost entirely in the last phase of the lap. The drop off experienced by Verstappen in the final corners was attributed to the Red Bull’s usage of the tyres. By Sunday’s grand prix, Verstappen felt the tyres were responsible for Red Bull’s lack of pace again.

“It was hard for us to pass the McLarens, and we were struggling with the tyres overheating and tyre degradation. I think this is even more evident on intermediates as the compound is even softer than the slicks,” he said.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 16: Lando Norris of Great Britain driving the (4) McLaren MCL39 Mercedes and Max Verstappen of the Netherlands driving the (1) Oracle Red Bull Racing RB21 battle for track position during the F1 Grand Prix of Australia at Albert Park Grand Prix Circuit on March 16, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images)
Norris & McLaren’s intermediate tyre wear could not be matched. Credit: By Courtesy of Pirelli.

It may therefore be a relief to Verstappen and Red Bull that the weather looks to be dry for the entirety of this weekend’s running. Though that may be the case, the Shanghai track characteristics may not favour teams who cannot manage their tyres effectively. It’s a circuit that punishes the rubber due to the long, high traction corner sequences and heavy braking zones. It’s also been resurfaced since F1’s last visit, which Pirelli believe will result in high levels of evolution as the weekend progresses.

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In light of these characteristics, it may seem logical to conclude that McLaren will have an advantage as long as their tyre life benefit continues. But these factors introduce unknowns, and it’s these that Verstappen spoke to in his pre-weekend assessment.

“We will not be the quickest”: Verstappen assesses Red Bull's chances in China
Credit: Red Bull Content Pool / Getty Images.

“Of course, this is quite a different layout and we have different, new tarmac here now. It’s a Sprint weekend, so not a lot of time to adapt, so we will have to see how the car is going to respond to that.”

“Australia is very different to here”, he said, and it’s these differences that could give McLaren’s rivals, including Verstappen, hope that the order can be re-established in Shanghai.

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