Based on the long runs of FP2, Max Verstappen could be a real threat in today’s Canadian Grand Prix – particularly as his average lap time over his 9 laps on the mediums was just 0.073s quicker than Russell’s 13 laps on an equal tyre.

Speaking after his P2 finish in yesterday’s qualifying session, Verstappen felt the race would come down to being “good on tyre management” which could indicate that Red Bull are considering the alternative strategy once again, the one stop here in Montreal.

But this should be tempered with the fact that Russell’s run, as is usually the case for Mercedes’ Friday run plan, was longer and therefore perhaps more representative of their true pace over a race stint. And in fact from a team perspective, Mercedes were strongest although not by a significant margin.

While Lando Norris will have been frustrated with his final qualifying result after having looked to have been in the fight for pole all the way to Q3, he can perhaps take confidence from his FP2 long run pace that ranks him P3.

Norris completed 10 consecutive laps on the C5 medium, leaving him just over a tenth away from Verstappen on average – perhaps meaning that a recovery up through to the front runners, and a podium, could be possible in spite of his own beliefs post-qualifying.

On the other side of the McLaren garage, although Oscar Piastri achieved a better qualifying result of P3, his race pace was somewhat lacking versus his teammate’s, albeit not by much. Piastri ranked P5, behind Hamilton in P4, after completing eight consecutive laps on the medium tyre.

From a team perspective, there’s a clear split from the top three down to the rest of the field. Mercedes lead McLaren when both drivers are considered in the average, with Ferrari just behind (Hamilton only as Leclerc missed FP2), but under two hundredths separate these front runners.

Somewhat surprisingly, Sauber are then the top running midfield team for long run pace but this could be explained by Bortoleto’s eight laps being completed on the hard tyre – offering a potential tyre life advantage.

This is likely to be the dominant race tyre today however, both as a result of the track characteristics, but also the tyre allocations the teams have after many opted to make use of the medium in qualifying.

While Red Bull are behind Sauber and Williams and sitting P6 based on these analyses, this is unlikely to be representative of their true pace as it’s being pulled down by a fairly significant lap time increase over Tsunoda’s 9 laps on the C5. His quickest lap time was a 1:17.138, while his slowest was 1:18.135 towards the end of his stint – which he will need to resolve if he’s going to make it through the field following his 10-place grid drop penalty that’s put him last on the grid.

It’ll be a similar story for Gasly who will start from the pit lane after Alpine pulled his car out of parc ferme overnight to make changes. His race pace from FP2 puts him 11th fastest with just 0.16s to Albon which could give him hope of a recovery through to those points paying positions. Albon’s own pace could see him firmly in the fight for points as he starts from P9.

The only driver to run the soft for a longer stint in FP2 was Fernando Alonso who completed 5 laps on the C6. While this may seem unrealistic to use in the race, we could see if from a few drivers today if they used the medium in qualifying. Tsunoda, Gasly, Colapinto, Ocon, Bearman, Sainz and Hulkenberg all have a new soft left heading into the grand prix which could offer up opportunities if there are safety cars, particularly later on, as we saw was the case in Spain last time. Though, of course, there are clear track differences that make the C6 inappropriate for longer stints here in Canada.

What’s perhaps most striking from this FP2 analysis is just how close the teams were on average – just over seven tenths separated the majority of the field, with Alonso’s soft run putting Aston Martin just over a second off the pace.

With the already unpredictable nature of the Canadian Grand Prix, a close field will mean it’s absolutely all to play for over the 70 laps!