Though Pirelli had come into the weekend feeling that a one-stop could have been possible due to their repositioning of the compounds and work on heat resistance over the winter, this opinion has now changed. So what does this mean for the teams’ strategic options?
Simulated race stints in FP2 revealed an very high level of thermal degradation, particularly on the soft and hard tyres which 12 of 20 drivers completed their runs on. As can be seen from the data from this session, these were much less consistent in lap times over a stint than the medium tyre.
As such, coming into the grand prix, Mario Isola, Pirelli’s Motorsport Director, is predicting that most teams will opt to run the two-stop – as has historically been the case in Bahrain.
Even though there was significant degradation on the soft tyre especially, Isola is anticipating that “all three tyre compounds can come into play”.
“Although a one-stop is clearly slower on paper, it cannot be ruled out completely, especially as eleven drivers have one new set of each of the Hard and Medium,” he said.
This group includes the Alpine, Racing Bulls, Williams, Haas and Mercedes drivers, plus Yuki Tsunoda, and Isola expects a medium start with first stint extension as far as possible before moving to the hards for this group.
For those drivers who didn’t advance to Q3 and so have a set of new softs available, using this for a shorter, quicker final stint could provide a performance advantage – particularly if the first stint can be extended enough to make a one stop possible.
On paper, a two-stop strategy looks the most optimal however: “The fastest route involves using two sets of mediums and one of hards”, according to Isola, “with pitstop windows between laps 14 and 20 and then again between laps 34 and 40.”
The McLarens and Ferraris have this option available to them based on their remaining tyre allowances, as do both Aston Martin drivers.
Max Verstappen is something of an anomaly as he has the inverse available – one medium and two hards – meaning we could see a medium opening stint with two hard stints to keep degradation at bay as much as possible for the Dutchman.
“Finally there’s the option to use all three compounds”, Isola said, “for example, for those who only have one new set each of the hard and medium available.”
In many ways this race is gearing up to be contrasting to the last in Suzuka, with overtaking, strategy and degradation all set to be in play!
