Where are we racing?

The opening round of 2025 takes place in Melbourne, Australia at the Albert Park Circuit for the first time since 2019. The race was removed from the calendar from 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic but made a return in 2022 for the new regulation era with a number of changes.

The circuit layout was revised for the first time since 1996, when it made its championship debut, in an effort to improve overtaking. Seven corners were modified, two were removed completely (the turns 9-10 chicane) and the track length was shortened by 28 metres to a total lap length of 5.278km. These alterations gave the track a wider, faster and sweeping feel which brought the qualifying lap time down and the average speed up.

In 2019, prior to these changes, the pole time was set by Lewis Hamilton at 1:20.486s and after these changes in 2022, the pole time was over two and a half seconds quicker at 1:17.868s, set by Charles Leclerc. In 2024, it was quicker again as Max Verstappen claimed pole with a time of 1:15.915s.

There’s further changes for this year as the kerb at turn 6 and through the apex of turn 7 has been replaced, the gravel trap has been brought closer to the kerb, and the barrier has been angled differently to prevent a car bouncing back onto the track after an impact. These changes come following George Russell’s last lap crash in 2024 that saw him spin back onto the racing line and the car come to a stop on its side.

The FIA said the changes have been enacted “based on feedback from the FIA Safety Department following their ongoing analysis of all circuits, as well as input from drivers and teams.”

The circuit is a temporary setup and as such is partly set on public roads, meaning it can be low grip and green at the start of the weekend and evolve quickly as the sessions go on. It also favours cars that can ride the kerbs well and those that have a good front end but a rear end that will follow through a turn, given the multitude of medium-speed corners on offer here.

Despite the track changes, overtaking remains a premium here – with just 24 overtakes in 2024 – making track position and qualifying critical. That said, it’s a circuit known for throwing up chaos and therefore opportunities, with 50% safety car and 67% virtual safety car probabilities.

Tyres on offer

The track renewal in 2022 has meant Pirelli are able to bring a soft compound range for use over the weekend to help counteract the lower level of grip while not being overly impacted by the medium level of stress that is placed on the tyres. 

With the C3 as the hard, C4 as the medium and C5 as the soft, Pirelli have kept their selection consistent with what was offered to the teams last year. But the makeup of these compounds has changed.

In developing their compound constructions over the winter, Pirelli have modified the C4 and C5 to be more resistant to graining on their tread surfaces while also minimising their degradation, aiming to expand their use as race tyres. 

The C3 remains the most versatile tyre in the supplier’s range and was the most used over pre-season testing in Bahrain, reflecting its likely wide use over the season.

With these modifications, Pirelli believe that Australia will serve as a “big test” for whether they’ve achieved what they set out to in making the C4 and C5 more favourable race tyres. In 2024 they were used for just 18% and 2% of laps, respectively, with an average stint length for a soft tyre of just 6.5 laps as graining impacted all compounds. If both metrics can increase for both compounds, then Pirelli can be confident that their work has addressed the problems they set out to resolve.

However there is one problem in conducting this test this weekend – the weather.

The forecast

It’s looking to be a weekend of mixed weather and therefore one that will test the teams in all extremes. Melbourne has a reputation for highly changeable conditions, and that reflects in the forecast for this race.

Saturday qualifying is going to be extremely warm with an ambient temperature of 35°C while Sunday’s race is likely to be impacted by wind and downpours, with a cooler temperature of 25°C.

With Friday’s forecast sitting somewhere between the two, and pre-season testing in Bahrain being unusually cool this year, the teams may head into qualifying with unknowns around how their car will treat the soft compound in the forecast heat. For this same reason, we lack a reference point of who has form in these conditions, making the pecking order unpredictable.

Come Sunday this could all be thrown out once again if the predicted rain falls, but this could give chances to those lower down in the field while mistakes are likely to be costly.

Strategy corner

Last year’s grand prix was mostly a two stop for the drivers, with a medium-hard-hard option being the favourite down the field and the one that was used to win the race by Carlos Sainz. Choosing the softer compound trio meant that tyre management was more influential than it had been in 2023, and meant that those who could manage their tyres better had the advantage of extending their stint length over their rivals.

This is what Carlos Sainz did – he went 7 laps further on his opening medium stint than Leclerc and Piastri, and 2 laps further than Norris – a move that gave him the tyre life advantage for his final two hard stints.

However if the forecast is to be believed, Sunday could be the first outing for the new extreme wet compound this year. The full wet tyre has a new tread design to help reduce overheating and Pirelli have also sought to widen its operating window by moving the compound makeup to be closer to that of the intermediate.

If we see rain, managing that crossover period between the wet and intermediate, and then potentially onto slicks, will be critical yet potentially tough for the teams to predict if the windows have changed versus where they were last year.

How things stand

With it being the first race of the season, there’s very little meaningful running to go on in predicting who may be strong. However, there is a clear air of confidence around McLaren and their chances following a promising testing performance – with Lando Norris’ race simulation on day 2 capturing attention and their one lap pace also looking solid.

But Norris, and the team, are cautious not to extrapolate from this to a successful weekend in Melbourne. Speaking on media day, Norris played down their advantage at this early stage, “I feel like we’re in a similar playing field to the other top three teams. I still think it’s us top four.”

“But there are many things that other people didn’t see where other people looked extremely strong, including Red Bull, including Mercedes, including Ferrari, and I know how much fuel and stuff Ferrari had for a lot of the testing. You’d be surprised at how quick they’re going to be this weekend.”

If Norris is right, and things are closely fought over by the top four teams, then we could be in for an exciting battle both over single laps and a race distance. 

Further down the order, testing data points to Williams and Alpine being ones to watch for the ‘best of the rest’ positions and possible Q3 or points finishes. Haas shouldn’t be counted out either on the evidence of last season, though their one lap pace remains a mystery as much of their focus went on longer-runs over testing.

Fast facts

The 2002 running of the Melbourne race saw eight cars retire on the first lap in a multi-car collision as a result of Ralf Schumacher flying over Rubens Barrichello into turn 1.

The Australian Grand Prix trophy design has remained almost untouched since the race began in 1996, inspired by the steering wheel of Australian motorsport legend Jack Brabham’s 1959 Cooper-Climax T51.

An Australian driver has never finished on the podium or won their home race. Daniel Ricciardo technically stood on his home podium as he made his Red Bull Racing debut in 2014 and finished P2 on track, but he was later disqualified as his car exceeded the maximum allowed fuel flow limit.